MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction

背景假设：

A fundamental aspect of future state prediction is that it is inherently stochastic, as agents cannot know each other’s motivations
【CC】这里假设我们是无法正真知道其他agnent的行为，跟RL计算纳什均衡思路不一样，后者假设每个agent都是理智的，都想达到自己的最优解

We seek a model of the future that can provide both (1) a weighted, parsimonious set of discrete trajectories that covers the space of likely outcomes and (2) a closed-form evaluation of the likelihood of any trajectory
【CC】期望模型输出能够满足 1）对预测的轨迹质量能够量化，进而选出更少的可能的未来（不然可能性会指数爆炸） 2）能够计算轨迹质量的解析解的似然值

主要思路：

MultiPath leverages a fifixed set of future state-sequence anchors that correspond to modes of the trajectory distribution.
【CC】以一组固定的（预定义）状态序列（预先定义好的轨迹）再对其数据分布进行预测；整体思想跟Detection中先固定一组template anchor box再对其进行回归差不都

Our method is inflfluenced heavily by the concept of predefifined anchors, which have a rich history in machine learning applications to handle multi-modal problems
【CC】如何去“预定义好”的anchors（轨迹），影响比较大

MultiPath predicts a discrete distribution over the anchors and, for each anchor, regresses offsets from anchor waypoints along with uncertainties, yielding a Gaussian mixture at each time step.
【CC】对每个agent（可以看成每辆车）基于固定的anchor（预先定义好的轨迹）去回归关于此轨迹的偏置， 先验的认为其服从GMM； 感觉像是先撒点，再对各个点进行回归

MultiPath model addresses these issues with a key insight: it employs a fifixed set of trajectory anchors as the basis of our modeling
【CC】为了规避未来时空可行性的指数爆炸问题，引入一组固定的anchors（预先定义好的轨迹）

assume control uncertainty is normally distributed at each future time step，parameterized such that the mean corresponds to a context-specifific offset from the anchor state，with the associated covariance capturing the unimodal aleatoric uncertainty
【CC】后面对control uncertainty有解释，就是对anchors offset的数据分布的描述，先验的认为其满足正态分布。其期望是上跟当前场景/上下文相关的量，其方差是一个单峰值的随机量

Our trajectory anchors are modes found in our training data in state-sequence space via unsupervised learning.
【CC】anchorss（预先定义好的轨迹）是从数据集中通过非监督的方式学出来的（K-meas）

Our complete model predicts a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) at each time step, with the mixture weights (intent distribution) fix